Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

153.83 – 102.25

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

262 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 57 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 413.7 ±9.8

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 69.33Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 59.84Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 24.66Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 171.3 ±11.6

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 24.13Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 28.5Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 49.62Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9140, 418, 6901

/ 100 compat

Projected

153.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 9140, 418, 6901

Auto

45.8 31%

Teleop

72.3 48%

Endgame

31.0 21%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6180, 5103, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

102.3 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 6180, 5103, 1255

Auto

22.1 22%

Teleop

44.3 44%

Endgame

34.5 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.79 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score153.8pts

Blue projected score102.3pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 51.6
Score range: 73–183
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 370 vs event baseline 162.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

413.7Season APEX171.3

45.8Auto22.1

72.3Teleop44.3

31Endgame34.5

23Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	29
teleop	186	35
endgame	28	44
foul	0	0
total	262	108

Result

Final score

262 – 108

Prediction correct · off by 57 pts

Match videos

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