Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

359.45 – 178.61

90%10%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

428 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 634.1 ±9.1

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 17.27Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 190.55Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 151.63Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.7 ±11.6

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 84.49Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 81.51Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 12.61Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7088, 6800, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

359.5 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 7088, 6800, 118

Auto

64.9 18%

Teleop

210.2 59%

Endgame

79.6 22%

Strengths

· 6800 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 436, 6377, 11309

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 436, 6377, 11309

Auto

38.9 22%

Teleop

96.2 54%

Endgame

43.1 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 8%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.47 · Blue 0.77

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score359.5pts

Blue projected score178.6pts

Red win probability90%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 8%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 180.8
Score range: 149–389
Upset likelihood: 10%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 623 vs event baseline 168.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

634.1Season APEX231.7

64.9Auto38.9

210.2Teleop96.2

79.6Endgame43.1

0Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	45
teleop	235	62
endgame	105	63
foul	0	25
total	428	195

Result

Final score

428 – 195

Prediction correct · off by 42.5 pts

Match videos

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