Qualification · Qualification 9

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

225.06 – 111.71

80%20%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

421 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 114.8 points

Limited current-season data (8 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 717.8 ±7.7

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 98Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 98Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 29.06Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 291 ±11.1

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 2.92Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 10.79Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 98Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 2583, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

225.1 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 118, 2583, 5572

Auto

54.0 24%

Teleop

124.2 56%

Endgame

44.1 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6180, 9140, 8573

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.7 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6180, 9140, 8573

Auto

32.1 29%

Teleop

53.7 49%

Endgame

23.1 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 69%

Supercharged: 10%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.42 · Blue 0.83

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score225.1pts

Blue projected score111.7pts

Red win probability80%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 69%, blue 39%

Supercharged bonusred 10%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 113.4
Score range: 90–247
Upset likelihood: 20%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 499 vs event baseline 122.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

717.8Season APEX291

54Auto32.1

124.2Teleop53.7

44.1Endgame23.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	99	23
teleop	256	24
endgame	66	16
foul	0	15
total	421	78

Result

Final score

421 – 78

Prediction correct · off by 114.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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