Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

50.7 – 85.77

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

97 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 206.3 ±12.2

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 9.56Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 33.43Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 7.71Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 205.6 ±11.6

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 9.5Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 7.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 68.56Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4076, 3545, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

50.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4076, 3545, 2587

Auto

18.3 36%

Teleop

13.1 26%

Endgame

18.9 38%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6243, 6377, 5103

/ 100 compat

Projected

85.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6243, 6377, 5103

Auto

16.3 20%

Teleop

40.9 50%

Endgame

24.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.78

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score50.7pts

Blue projected score85.8pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -35.1
Score range: 26–111
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Close match

Combined score 195 vs event baseline 140.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

206.3Season APEX205.6

18.3Auto16.3

13.1Teleop40.9

18.9Endgame24.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	17	21
teleop	40	54
endgame	40	23
foul	0	0
total	97	98

Result

Final score

97 – 98

Prediction correct · off by 29.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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