Qualification · Qualification 54

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.02 – 130.53

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

165 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 177.3 ±11.6

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 54.19Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 30.01Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 19.82Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 298.6 ±10.4

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 74.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 5.26Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 50.52Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9506, 2789, 6180

/ 100 compat

Projected

104 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 9506, 2789, 6180

Auto

24.2 24%

Teleop

49.1 49%

Endgame

27.1 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6377, 10913, 418

/ 100 compat

Projected

130.5 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6377, 10913, 418

Auto

40.9 32%

Teleop

56.3 44%

Endgame

30.4 24%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.33 · Blue 1.74

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104pts

Blue projected score130.5pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -26.5
Score range: 75–160
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 409 vs event baseline 159.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

177.3Season APEX298.6

24.2Auto40.9

49.1Teleop56.3

27.1Endgame30.4

48Consistency11

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	66
teleop	82	168
endgame	48	10
foul	5	0
total	165	244

Result

Final score

165 – 244

Prediction correct · off by 87.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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