Qualification · Qualification 53

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

182.16 – 68

81%19%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

219 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 334.4 ±10.4

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 13.25Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 144.27Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 24.64Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 224.1 ±11.6

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 26.6Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 11.73Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 29.67Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7138, 118, 6901

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.2 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 7138, 118, 6901

Auto

37.1 20%

Teleop

107.6 59%

Endgame

38.1 21%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6243, 7088, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

68 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 6243, 7088, 2587

Auto

23.6 34%

Teleop

29.1 42%

Endgame

16.1 23%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.18 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.2pts

Blue projected score68pts

Red win probability81%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 114.2
Score range: 39–211
Upset likelihood: 19%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 301 vs event baseline 159.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

334.4Season APEX224.1

37.1Auto23.6

107.6Teleop29.1

38.1Endgame16.1

32Consistency31

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	40	40
teleop	104	29
endgame	40	13
foul	35	0
total	219	82

Result

Final score

219 – 82

Prediction correct · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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