Qualification · Qualification 52

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.97 – 221.18

27%73%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 166.5 ±12.7

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 26.51Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 85.47Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 29.99Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 321.3 ±11.1

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 23.59Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 16.35Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 181.24Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8750, 436, 5103

/ 100 compat

Projected

142 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8750, 436, 5103

Auto

39.3 28%

Teleop

64.3 46%

Endgame

35.9 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4076, 11309, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

221.2 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 4076, 11309, 2583

Auto

64.7 30%

Teleop

109.4 51%

Endgame

40.7 19%

Strengths

· 2583 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.14 · Blue 2.05

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score142pts

Blue projected score221.2pts

Red win probability27%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -79.2
Score range: 113–250
Upset likelihood: 27%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 351 vs event baseline 159.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

166.5Season APEX321.3

39.3Auto64.7

64.3Teleop109.4

35.9Endgame40.7

39Consistency72

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	64
teleop	56	84
endgame	60	48
foul	0	0
total	155	196

Result

Final score

155 – 196

Prediction correct · off by 19.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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