Qualification · Qualification 51

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

106.78 – 129.3

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

119 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 14 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 183 ±12.8

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 18.22Rank 27Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 34.61Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 53.95Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 300.3 ±10.5

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 17.46Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 2.85Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 108.99Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11224, 3545, 5892

/ 100 compat

Projected

106.8 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11224, 3545, 5892

Auto

5.2 5%

Teleop

70.1 64%

Endgame

34.5 31%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9577, 8573, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

129.3 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9577, 8573, 5572

Auto

30.7 24%

Teleop

70.4 56%

Endgame

25.6 20%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 48%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score106.8pts

Blue projected score129.3pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 48%, blue 52%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -22.5
Score range: 78–158
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 264 vs event baseline 159.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

183Season APEX300.3

5.2Auto30.7

70.1Teleop70.4

34.5Endgame25.6

10Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	33
teleop	66	93
endgame	33	19
foul	0	0
total	119	145

Result

Final score

119 – 145

Prediction correct · off by 14 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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