Qualification · Qualification 48

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.49 – 143.51

56%44%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

183 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 234.8 ±11.6

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 85.43Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 25.17Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 53.89Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 302.8 ±12.4

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 109.6Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 14.48Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 19.43Rank 27Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 436, 4076, 5892

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.5 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 436, 4076, 5892

Auto

26.2 17%

Teleop

98.1 62%

Endgame

33.3 21%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5572, 7138, 11224

/ 100 compat

Projected

143.5 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5572, 7138, 11224

Auto

23.9 16%

Teleop

85.2 59%

Endgame

36.5 25%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 57%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.75 · Blue 1.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.5pts

Blue projected score143.5pts

Red win probability56%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 57%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 21
Score range: 116–192
Upset likelihood: 44%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 339 vs event baseline 157.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

234.8Season APEX302.8

26.2Auto23.9

98.1Teleop85.2

33.3Endgame36.5

47Consistency17

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	38
teleop	93	78
endgame	55	40
foul	0	0
total	183	156

Result

Final score

183 – 156

Prediction correct · off by 15.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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