Qualification · Qualification 47

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

56.81 – 399.21

2%98%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

65 – 546

Prediction correct · off by 77.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 82.7 ±12.7

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 5.33Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 35.19Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 16.29Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 843.9 ±8.7

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 169.61Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 54.51Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 175.09Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8573, 3545, 11309

/ 100 compat

Projected

56.8 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8573, 3545, 11309

Auto

15.0 27%

Teleop

15.2 28%

Endgame

24.6 45%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2583, 9140, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

399.2 pts

~2.7 RP (district)

Teams: 2583, 9140, 6800

Auto

93.2 24%

Teleop

222.8 58%

Endgame

71.1 18%

Strengths

· 6800 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.5 · Blue 2.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score56.8pts

Blue projected score399.2pts

Red win probability2%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 59%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 9%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -342.4
Score range: 29–427
Upset likelihood: 2%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 611 vs event baseline 154.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

82.7Season APEX843.9

15Auto93.2

15.2Teleop222.8

24.6Endgame71.1

31Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	11	131
teleop	31	300
endgame	23	115
foul	0	0
total	65	546

Result

Final score

65 – 546

Prediction correct · off by 77.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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