Qualification · Qualification 46

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

61.48 – 163.92

22%78%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

39 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 189.9 ±11

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 31.41Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 20.97Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 9.1Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 247.8 ±11

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 28.49Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 81.71Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 53.72Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6243, 9577, 10913

/ 100 compat

Projected

61.5 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 6243, 9577, 10913

Auto

25.0 45%

Teleop

20.4 37%

Endgame

9.6 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6180, 6377, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

163.9 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6180, 6377, 1255

Auto

28.2 17%

Teleop

88.7 55%

Endgame

44.7 28%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.99 · Blue 2.1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score61.5pts

Blue projected score163.9pts

Red win probability22%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -102.4
Score range: 33–192
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 141 vs event baseline 155.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

189.9Season APEX247.8

25Auto28.2

20.4Teleop88.7

9.6Endgame44.7

22Consistency4

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	19
teleop	10	42
endgame	9	41
foul	0	0
total	39	102

Result

Final score

39 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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