Qualification · Qualification 45

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

49.11 – 213.41

11%89%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

113 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 91.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 112.6 ±12.7

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 22.9Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 16.25Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 9.96Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 413.5 ±10.5

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 98.07Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 74.35Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 40.99Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5103, 2789, 7138

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.1 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 5103, 2789, 7138

Auto

19.3 39%

Teleop

17.6 35%

Endgame

13.0 26%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5572, 436, 9506

/ 100 compat

Projected

213.4 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5572, 436, 9506

Auto

44.3 21%

Teleop

119.9 57%

Endgame

47.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.76 · Blue 2.46

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score49.1pts

Blue projected score213.4pts

Red win probability11%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 65%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -164.3
Score range: 21–241
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 445 vs event baseline 154.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

112.6Season APEX413.5

19.3Auto44.3

17.6Teleop119.9

13Endgame47.8

67Consistency28

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	52
teleop	44	201
endgame	30	79
foul	15	0
total	113	332

Result

Final score

113 – 332

Prediction correct · off by 91.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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