Qualification · Qualification 43

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

68.13 – 89.23

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

64 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 65.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 109.2 ±12.7

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 16.26Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 30.76Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 21.11Rank 27Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 333.9 ±11.7

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 41.84Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 23.36Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 24.03Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11309, 6180, 11224

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11309, 6180, 11224

Auto

11.2 16%

Teleop

26.6 38%

Endgame

31.7 46%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9140, 6243, 3545

/ 100 compat

Projected

89.2 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 9140, 6243, 3545

Auto

25.6 30%

Teleop

37.9 44%

Endgame

22.7 26%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 41%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.32 · Blue 1.66

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score68.1pts

Blue projected score89.2pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 41%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -21.1
Score range: 40–117
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 281 vs event baseline 155.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

109.2Season APEX333.9

11.2Auto25.6

26.6Teleop37.9

31.7Endgame22.7

26Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	27
teleop	24	130
endgame	19	45
foul	0	15
total	64	217

Result

Final score

64 – 217

Prediction correct · off by 65.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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