Qualification · Qualification 42

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

141.81 – 361.34

6%94%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

125 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 235.4 ±10.4

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 29.25Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 24.65Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 87.91Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 693.5 ±8.4

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 172.43Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 48.63Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 140.28Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6901, 9577, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

141.8 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6901, 9577, 6377

Auto

27.2 19%

Teleop

76.1 54%

Endgame

38.7 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6800, 5892, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

361.3 pts

~2.6 RP (district)

Teams: 6800, 5892, 118

Auto

57.8 16%

Teleop

214.9 60%

Endgame

83.3 23%

Strengths

· 6800 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.65 · Blue 2.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score141.8pts

Blue projected score361.3pts

Red win probability6%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 61%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 11%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -219.5
Score range: 115–388
Upset likelihood: 6%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 546 vs event baseline 152.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

235.4Season APEX693.5

27.2Auto57.8

76.1Teleop214.9

38.7Endgame83.3

10Consistency53

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	33	48
teleop	62	309
endgame	30	64
foul	0	0
total	125	421

Result

Final score

125 – 421

Prediction correct · off by 38.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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