Qualification · Qualification 41

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

264.15 – 57.24

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

247 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 31 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 386.8 ±11.2

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 173.78Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 34.44Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 55.93Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 199.5 ±11.7

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 8.36Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 40.85Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 8.03Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2583, 8750, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

264.2 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 2583, 8750, 1255

Auto

68.3 26%

Teleop

143.9 55%

Endgame

49.6 19%

Strengths

· 2583 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7138, 9506, 10913

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.2 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 7138, 9506, 10913

Auto

22.7 42%

Teleop

21.4 40%

Endgame

9.6 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.52 · Blue 0.72

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score264.2pts

Blue projected score57.2pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 206.9
Score range: 30–291
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 349 vs event baseline 151.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

386.8Season APEX199.5

68.3Auto22.7

143.9Teleop21.4

49.6Endgame9.6

20Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	66	18
teleop	135	55
endgame	41	29
foul	5	0
total	247	102

Result

Final score

247 – 102

Prediction correct · off by 31 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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