Qualification · Qualification 40

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

134.37 – 68.14

70%30%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

166 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 227.2 ±11.6

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 48.09Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 72.58Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 13.7Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 208.7 ±12.2

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 17.08Rank 27Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 23.56Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 27.5Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 418, 436, 11309

/ 100 compat

Projected

134.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 418, 436, 11309

Auto

34.7 26%

Teleop

67.2 51%

Endgame

29.6 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11224, 2587, 4076

/ 100 compat

Projected

68.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11224, 2587, 4076

Auto

13.5 21%

Teleop

27.2 43%

Endgame

22.6 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.95 · Blue 1.16

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score134.4pts

Blue projected score68.1pts

Red win probability70%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 51%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 66.2
Score range: 41–161
Upset likelihood: 30%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 287 vs event baseline 151.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

227.2Season APEX208.7

34.7Auto13.5

67.2Teleop27.2

29.6Endgame22.6

26Consistency86

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	71	24
teleop	51	60
endgame	44	37
foul	0	0
total	166	121

Result

Final score

166 – 121

Prediction correct · off by 42.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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