Qualification · Qualification 4
APEX prediction
Predicted winner
Red alliance
Predicted score
146.85 – 140.71
52%48%
Actual result
Winner
Red alliance
Final score
117 – 27
Prediction correct · off by 71.8 points
red allianceTotal Season APEX 348.9 ±11.2
Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 10.46Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 101.24Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 35.15Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97
blue allianceTotal Season APEX 276.6 ±11.7
Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 22.2Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97
Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 81.18Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 37.33Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100
Scouting breakdown
Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.
Red · 10913, 5572, 3545
56
/ 100 compatProjected
146.9 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 10913, 5572, 3545
Auto
29.1 21%
Teleop
73.4 52%
Endgame
37.5 27%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Blue · 8750, 6377, 2587
60
/ 100 compatProjected
140.7 pts
~1.6 RP (district)
Teams: 8750, 6377, 2587
Auto
37.4 26%
Teleop
69.9 49%
Endgame
34.8 24%
Strengths
- · Well-balanced across phases
Weaknesses
- · Inconsistent match-to-match output
RP bonus probability
Energized: 55%
Supercharged: 3%
Traversal: 2%
Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.64 · Blue 1.57
Formula
RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)
Inputs
Rule setDistrict
Red projected score146.9pts
Blue projected score140.7pts
Red win probability52%
Event bonus sample138alliance-matches
Adjustments
Energized bonusred 55%, blue 56%
Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%
Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%
- District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
- Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
- Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).
Prediction detail
- Predicted margin
- 6.1
- Score range
- 109–179
- Upset likelihood
- 48%
- Data cutoff
- 2026-08-15
- Model
- apex-0.4.0
Red vs Blue
Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)
348.9Season APEX276.6
29.1Auto37.4
73.4Teleop69.9
37.5Endgame34.8
25Consistency79
Score breakdown
Official phase points (TBA)
| Phase | Red | Blue |
|---|---|---|
| auto | 28 | 15 |
| teleop | 51 | 1 |
| endgame | 38 | 11 |
| foul | 0 | 0 |
| total | 117 | 27 |
Result
Final score
117 – 27
Prediction correct · off by 71.8 pts
Score check across official sources:
agree
Match videos
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