Qualification · Qualification 38

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

92.83 – 83.98

53%47%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

130 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 331 ±11.2

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 29.89Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 41.25Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 21.69Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 143.6 ±11.6

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 30.55Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 24.33Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 29.1Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8750, 9140, 9577

/ 100 compat

Projected

92.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8750, 9140, 9577

Auto

30.5 35%

Teleop

34.4 40%

Endgame

21.8 25%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6901, 5103, 6180

/ 100 compat

Projected

84 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 6901, 5103, 6180

Auto

20.4 23%

Teleop

40.3 45%

Endgame

28.0 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 52%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score92.8pts

Blue projected score84pts

Red win probability53%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 52%, blue 40%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 8.8
Score range: 57–120
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 217 vs event baseline 151.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

331Season APEX143.6

30.5Auto20.4

34.4Teleop40.3

21.8Endgame28

17Consistency8

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	37	30
teleop	79	26
endgame	14	31
foul	0	0
total	130	87

Result

Final score

130 – 87

Prediction correct · off by 20.1 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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