Qualification · Qualification 34

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

69.31 – 232.9

12%88%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

86 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 74.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 143.2 ±12.1

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 28.09Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 18.75Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 22.47Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 374.9 ±10.5

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 66.24Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 44.97Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 121.69Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6180, 6243, 2789

/ 100 compat

Projected

69.3 pts

~0.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6180, 6243, 2789

Auto

28.2 42%

Teleop

27.6 41%

Endgame

11.1 17%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 418, 5103, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

232.9 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 418, 5103, 5572

Auto

48.3 20%

Teleop

144.5 61%

Endgame

44.0 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 43%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.7 · Blue 2.38

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score69.3pts

Blue projected score232.9pts

Red win probability12%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 43%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -163.6
Score range: 42–260
Upset likelihood: 12%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 148.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

143.2Season APEX374.9

28.2Auto48.3

27.6Teleop144.5

11.1Endgame44

44Consistency2

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	14	41
teleop	38	36
endgame	29	24
foul	5	0
total	86	101

Result

Final score

86 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 74.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree