Qualification · Qualification 33

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

178.41 – 94

74%26%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

101 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 93.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 202.3 ±11.6

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 91.68Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 58.05Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 28.68Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 407.4 ±9.8

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 29.23Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 40.89Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 23.88Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 436, 1255, 8573

/ 100 compat

Projected

178.4 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 436, 1255, 8573

Auto

32.8 19%

Teleop

99.4 57%

Endgame

41.0 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9140, 5892, 6901

/ 100 compat

Projected

94 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 9140, 5892, 6901

Auto

21.2 24%

Teleop

43.9 51%

Endgame

21.5 25%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 50%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.03 · Blue 1

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score178.4pts

Blue projected score94pts

Red win probability74%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 50%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 84.4
Score range: 67–205
Upset likelihood: 26%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 304 vs event baseline 148.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

202.3Season APEX407.4

32.8Auto21.2

99.4Teleop43.9

41Endgame21.5

1Consistency43

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	26
teleop	31	130
endgame	26	47
foul	15	0
total	101	203

Result

Final score

101 – 203

Prediction missed · off by 93.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree