Qualification · Qualification 32

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

216.76 – 71.44

86%14%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

172 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 332.4 ±9.7

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 31.49Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 35.25Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 150.02Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 198 ±11

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX 12.32Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 50.3Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 8.82Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9577, 4076, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

216.8 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9577, 4076, 118

Auto

51.2 24%

Teleop

120.1 57%

Endgame

39.2 19%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 10913, 9506, 11309

/ 100 compat

Projected

71.4 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 10913, 9506, 11309

Auto

17.0 27%

Teleop

22.5 36%

Endgame

23.0 37%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 60%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.8

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score216.8pts

Blue projected score71.4pts

Red win probability86%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 60%, blue 48%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 145.3
Score range: 44–244
Upset likelihood: 14%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-16
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 148.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

332.4Season APEX198

51.2Auto17

120.1Teleop22.5

39.2Endgame23

60Consistency21

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	29	18
teleop	86	48
endgame	42	25
foul	15	0
total	172	91

Result

Final score

172 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 32.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree