Qualification · Qualification 31

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

194.69 – 159.25

61%39%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

315 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 74 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 502.9 ±10.5

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 129.62Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 49.15Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 15.92Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 328 ±11.7

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 120.01Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 22.26Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 16.98Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6800, 418, 6180

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.7 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6800, 418, 6180

Auto

53.2 29%

Teleop

99.5 54%

Endgame

31.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5572, 8750, 6243

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5572, 8750, 6243

Auto

44.4 27%

Teleop

90.8 56%

Endgame

27.3 17%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.78 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score194.7pts

Blue projected score159.3pts

Red win probability61%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 58%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 35.4
Score range: 133–221
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 502 vs event baseline 145.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

502.9Season APEX328

53.2Auto44.4

99.5Teleop90.8

31.3Endgame27.3

104Consistency14

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	64	43
teleop	172	102
endgame	79	37
foul	0	5
total	315	187

Result

Final score

315 – 187

Prediction correct · off by 74 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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