Qualification · Qualification 30

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

87.38 – 46.21

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

135 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 289.7 ±10.4

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 49.11Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 25.82Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 12.45Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 103.7 ±12.7

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 33.48Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX -4.25Rank 27Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 16.98Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1255, 6901, 2587

/ 100 compat

Projected

87.4 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 1255, 6901, 2587

Auto

22.8 25%

Teleop

35.7 39%

Endgame

33.5 36%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8573, 11224, 2789

/ 100 compat

Projected

46.2 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8573, 11224, 2789

Auto

10.9 28%

Teleop

14.6 37%

Endgame

13.5 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.76 · Blue 1.2

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score87.4pts

Blue projected score46.2pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 41%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 41.2
Score range: 20–113
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 185 vs event baseline 146.9.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

289.7Season APEX103.7

22.8Auto10.9

35.7Teleop14.6

33.5Endgame13.5

20Consistency44

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	24	12
teleop	62	30
endgame	49	8
foul	0	0
total	135	50

Result

Final score

135 – 50

Prediction correct · off by 25.7 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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