Qualification · Qualification 3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

83.11 – 319.65

5%95%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

93 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 149.9 ±11.6

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 14.34Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 21.87Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 46.9Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 501.6 ±9.1

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX -2.42Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 168.2Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 153.87Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4076, 6180, 6901

/ 100 compat

Projected

83.1 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4076, 6180, 6901

Auto

20.2 26%

Teleop

30.1 39%

Endgame

26.9 35%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8573, 2583, 118

/ 100 compat

Projected

319.7 pts

~2.5 RP (district)

Teams: 8573, 2583, 118

Auto

83.7 27%

Teleop

174.7 56%

Endgame

53.2 17%

Strengths

· 2583 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 42%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.56 · Blue 2.54

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score83.1pts

Blue projected score319.7pts

Red win probability5%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 42%, blue 55%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 7%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -236.5
Score range: 51–352
Upset likelihood: 5%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 436 vs event baseline 176.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

149.9Season APEX501.6

20.2Auto83.7

30.1Teleop174.7

26.9Endgame53.2

74Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	32	80
teleop	35	197
endgame	26	61
foul	0	5
total	93	343

Result

Final score

93 – 343

Prediction correct · off by 16.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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