Qualification · Qualification 28

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

104.65 – 117.84

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

159 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 34.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 243.8 ±11.7

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 35.62Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX -4.12Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 73.15Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 315.2 ±11.1

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 50.82Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

4076Texan Robotics

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX 38.46Rank 13Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 28.56Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5892, 7138, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

104.7 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5892, 7138, 6377

Auto

14.5 14%

Teleop

58.4 56%

Endgame

31.4 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5103, 4076, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

117.8 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5103, 4076, 9140

Auto

26.7 25%

Teleop

55.8 52%

Endgame

25.2 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.52 · Blue 1.62

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score104.7pts

Blue projected score117.8pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 49%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -13.2
Score range: 79–144
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 292 vs event baseline 144.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

243.8Season APEX315.2

14.5Auto26.7

58.4Teleop55.8

31.4Endgame25.2

109Consistency56

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	33
teleop	100	77
endgame	36	23
foul	0	0
total	159	133

Result

Final score

159 – 133

Prediction missed · off by 34.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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