Qualification · Qualification 26

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

170.27 – 187.81

45%55%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

195 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 41.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 303.8 ±11

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 147.69Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX 13.63Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 8.95Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 238.4 ±12.2

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 100.53Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 25.6Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 61.68Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 118, 8750, 11309

/ 100 compat

Projected

170.3 pts

~1.5 RP (district)

Teams: 118, 8750, 11309

Auto

32.4 19%

Teleop

95.4 56%

Endgame

42.1 25%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 436, 3545, 418

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.8 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 436, 3545, 418

Auto

36.6 19%

Teleop

98.7 52%

Endgame

53.8 28%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 53%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.48 · Blue 1.71

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score170.3pts

Blue projected score187.8pts

Red win probability45%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 53%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -17.5
Score range: 144–214
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 325 vs event baseline 144.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

303.8Season APEX238.4

32.4Auto36.6

95.4Teleop98.7

42.1Endgame53.8

44Consistency124

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	44	26
teleop	99	77
endgame	52	27
foul	0	0
total	195	130

Result

Final score

195 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 41.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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