Qualification · Qualification 23

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

182.43 – 194.21

46%54%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

298 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 68.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 439.9 ±9.8

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 35.67Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 102.01Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 44.75Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 347.8 ±10.5

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 16.17Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 30.09Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 147.95Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 1255, 5572, 6377

/ 100 compat

Projected

182.4 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 1255, 5572, 6377

Auto

30.8 17%

Teleop

109.3 59%

Endgame

45.0 24%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11309, 6901, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

194.2 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 11309, 6901, 2583

Auto

64.5 33%

Teleop

96.5 49%

Endgame

34.8 18%

Strengths

· 2583 anchors offense
· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 61%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.59

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score182.4pts

Blue projected score194.2pts

Red win probability46%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 61%, blue 46%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -11.8
Score range: 156–220
Upset likelihood: 46%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 471 vs event baseline 144.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

439.9Season APEX347.8

30.8Auto64.5

109.3Teleop96.5

45Endgame34.8

70Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	43	34
teleop	178	76
endgame	72	63
foul	5	0
total	298	173

Result

Final score

298 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 68.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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