Qualification · Qualification 22

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

38.85 – 67.61

41%59%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

70 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 123.6 ±12.8

3545Bots in Blue

Season APEX 39.5Event APEX 30.08Rank 23Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX -3.38Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 12.15Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.4 ±12.2

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 52.13Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 19.71Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8750Tarpontron1cs

Season APEX 39.6Event APEX -4.23Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 3545, 7138, 9577

/ 100 compat

Projected

38.9 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 3545, 7138, 9577

Auto

20.7 46%

Teleop

-2.4 0%

Endgame

26.6 59%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 418, 8573, 8750

/ 100 compat

Projected

67.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 418, 8573, 8750

Auto

20.3 32%

Teleop

39.7 62%

Endgame

4.3 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.41 · Blue 1.69

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score38.9pts

Blue projected score67.6pts

Red win probability41%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -28.8
Score range: 13–94
Upset likelihood: 41%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 243 vs event baseline 145.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

123.6Season APEX162.4

20.7Auto20.3

-2.4Teleop39.7

26.6Endgame4.3

150Consistency120

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	27	59
teleop	25	79
endgame	18	30
foul	0	5
total	70	173

Result

Final score

70 – 173

Prediction correct · off by 68.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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