Qualification · Qualification 2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

110.33 – 120.62

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

74 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 171.6 ±11.6

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 13.88Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 54.37Rank 8Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 42.08Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 178.1 ±12.7

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 27.42Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 84.43Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 8.77Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11309, 1255, 2789

/ 100 compat

Projected

110.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11309, 1255, 2789

Auto

20.7 20%

Teleop

48.5 46%

Endgame

36.4 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 6243, 436, 7138

/ 100 compat

Projected

120.6 pts

~1.7 RP (district)

Teams: 6243, 436, 7138

Auto

33.0 29%

Teleop

54.8 48%

Endgame

25.8 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 45%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.44 · Blue 1.68

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score110.3pts

Blue projected score120.6pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 45%, blue 57%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -10.3
Score range: 78–153
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 174 vs event baseline 176.4.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

171.6Season APEX178.1

20.7Auto33

48.5Teleop54.8

36.4Endgame25.8

68Consistency67

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	16	17
teleop	35	57
endgame	18	26
foul	5	0
total	74	100

Result

Final score

74 – 100

Prediction correct · off by 28.5 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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