Qualification · Qualification 19

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

164.4 – 121.91

63%37%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

270 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 399.5 ±10.5

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 36.49Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 2.66Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 125.25Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 179.4 ±12.2

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 86.72Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX -12.93Rank 27Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 48.12Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9506, 6243, 2583

/ 100 compat

Projected

164.4 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9506, 6243, 2583

Auto

51.3 31%

Teleop

100.3 61%

Endgame

11.7 7%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 5103, 11224, 5892

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5103, 11224, 5892

Auto

10.1 8%

Teleop

81.7 68%

Endgame

27.9 23%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 59%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.91 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score164.4pts

Blue projected score121.9pts

Red win probability63%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 59%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 42.5
Score range: 97–189
Upset likelihood: 37%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 373 vs event baseline 140.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

399.5Season APEX179.4

51.3Auto10.1

100.3Teleop81.7

11.7Endgame27.9

138Consistency48

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	88	18
teleop	160	51
endgame	22	34
foul	0	0
total	270	103

Result

Final score

270 – 103

Prediction correct · off by 62.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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