Qualification · Qualification 18

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

189.04 – 96.29

76%24%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

139 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 400.7 ±11.7

8573Rogue-Rangers LEGACY

Season APEX 14.9Event APEX 26.75Rank 26Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 16.05Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 146.24Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 384 ±10.5

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 1.82Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 4.58Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 89.89Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8573, 7138, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

189 pts

~2.1 RP (district)

Teams: 8573, 7138, 6800

Auto

28.5 16%

Teleop

118.4 65%

Endgame

35.0 19%

Strengths

· 6800 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2587, 11309, 5572

/ 100 compat

Projected

96.3 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 2587, 11309, 5572

Auto

22.5 24%

Teleop

51.4 55%

Endgame

20.2 21%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 4%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.09 · Blue 1.06

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score189pts

Blue projected score96.3pts

Red win probability76%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 4%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 92.7
Score range: 71–214
Upset likelihood: 24%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 312 vs event baseline 139.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

400.7Season APEX384

28.5Auto22.5

118.4Teleop51.4

35Endgame20.2

81Consistency125

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	47	24
teleop	68	101
endgame	24	48
foul	0	0
total	139	173

Result

Final score

139 – 173

Prediction missed · off by 63.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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