Qualification · Qualification 17

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

159.83 – 133.48

58%42%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

304 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 585.4 ±8.4

6377Howdy Bots

Season APEX 112.4Event APEX 5.05Rank 6Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 139.18Rank 1Record 11-1-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 15.6Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 192.2 ±11.6

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 23.99Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 26.11Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

436Purple Rain

Season APEX 91Event APEX 83.38Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6377, 118, 9140

/ 100 compat

Projected

159.8 pts

~1.8 RP (district)

Teams: 6377, 118, 9140

Auto

31.1 20%

Teleop

101.8 65%

Endgame

24.0 15%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9577, 2789, 436

/ 100 compat

Projected

133.5 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 9577, 2789, 436

Auto

22.5 17%

Teleop

94.5 72%

Endgame

14.1 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 56%

Supercharged: 5%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.8 · Blue 1.42

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score159.8pts

Blue projected score133.5pts

Red win probability58%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 56%, blue 54%

Supercharged bonusred 5%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 26.4
Score range: 109–184
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 427 vs event baseline 134.7.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

585.4Season APEX192.2

31.1Auto22.5

101.8Teleop94.5

24Endgame14.1

112Consistency37

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	67	40
teleop	157	41
endgame	80	42
foul	0	0
total	304	123

Result

Final score

304 – 123

Prediction correct · off by 77.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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