Qualification · Qualification 16

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

204.53 – 101.64

78%22%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

224 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 365 ±10.5

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 131.5Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10913Robot Wranglers

Season APEX 78.3Event APEX -12.3Rank 14Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 85.33Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 218.5 ±11.7

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 48.45Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6901Knights

Season APEX 68.7Event APEX 36.85Rank 20Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11224Azreal

Season APEX 41.9Event APEX 16.34Rank 27Record 2-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2583, 10913, 5103

/ 100 compat

Projected

204.5 pts

~2.2 RP (district)

Teams: 2583, 10913, 5103

Auto

50.7 25%

Teleop

118.0 58%

Endgame

35.6 17%

Strengths

· 2583 anchors offense
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 418, 6901, 11224

/ 100 compat

Projected

101.6 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 418, 6901, 11224

Auto

30.9 30%

Teleop

62.2 61%

Endgame

9.1 9%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.16 · Blue 0.91

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score204.5pts

Blue projected score101.6pts

Red win probability78%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 43%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 102.9
Score range: 78–229
Upset likelihood: 22%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 288 vs event baseline 134.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

365Season APEX218.5

50.7Auto30.9

118Teleop62.2

35.6Endgame9.1

0Consistency62

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	73	31
teleop	104	11
endgame	47	22
foul	0	0
total	224	64

Result

Final score

224 – 64

Prediction correct · off by 28.6 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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