Qualification · Qualification 14

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

113.65 – 58.65

66%34%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

161 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 320.2 ±11.1

2789TEXPLOSION

Season APEX 46.9Event APEX 28.43Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5572Rosbots

Season APEX 231.1Event APEX 99.67Rank 4Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7088Somerset Robodogs

Season APEX 42.2Event APEX -14.45Rank 25Record 3-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 187.2 ±11.6

11309Gear Owls

Season APEX 28.3Event APEX 5.75Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 47.19Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6243Energy NERDs

Season APEX 57.3Event APEX 5.71Rank 10Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2789, 5572, 7088

/ 100 compat

Projected

113.7 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 2789, 5572, 7088

Auto

30.8 27%

Teleop

66.5 58%

Endgame

16.9 15%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 11309, 5892, 6243

/ 100 compat

Projected

58.7 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 11309, 5892, 6243

Auto

11.3 20%

Teleop

37.0 66%

Endgame

7.7 14%

Strengths

· Low variance, consistent output

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 49%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.87 · Blue 1.19

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score113.7pts

Blue projected score58.7pts

Red win probability66%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 49%, blue 47%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 55
Score range: 34–139
Upset likelihood: 34%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 238 vs event baseline 137.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

320.2Season APEX187.2

30.8Auto11.3

66.5Teleop37

16.9Endgame7.7

0Consistency97

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	39	21
teleop	98	35
endgame	24	21
foul	0	0
total	161	77

Result

Final score

161 – 77

Prediction correct · off by 32.8 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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