Qualification · Qualification 12

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

57.86 – 187.32

17%83%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

71 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 7.2 points

Limited current-season data (10 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 391.5 ±11.2

9140The Robobots

Season APEX 237.1Event APEX 18.31Rank 11Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2587DiscoBots

Season APEX 124.6Event APEX 29.55Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7138Wing It

Season APEX 29.8Event APEX 10Rank 24Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 344.1 ±10.5

2583Orange Dynamite

Season APEX 250.8Event APEX 137.42Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6180Mechanical Lions

Season APEX 39Event APEX 7.46Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 42.44Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 9140, 2587, 7138

/ 100 compat

Projected

57.9 pts

~0.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9140, 2587, 7138

Auto

10.9 20%

Teleop

19.1 36%

Endgame

23.8 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 2583, 6180, 9577

/ 100 compat

Projected

187.3 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2583, 6180, 9577

Auto

47.5 26%

Teleop

96.8 53%

Endgame

37.1 20%

Strengths

· 2583 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

–

RP bonus probability

Energized: 51%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 0.89 · Blue 2.25

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score57.9pts

Blue projected score187.3pts

Red win probability17%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 51%, blue 53%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 3%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -129.5
Score range: 34–211
Upset likelihood: 17%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 257 vs event baseline 132.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

391.5Season APEX344.1

10.9Auto47.5

19.1Teleop96.8

23.8Endgame37.1

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	25	62
teleop	22	109
endgame	24	15
foul	0	0
total	71	186

Result

Final score

71 – 186

Prediction correct · off by 7.2 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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