Qualification · Qualification 1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

203.68 – 240.09

39%61%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

155 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 300.9 ±10.4

5892Energy HEROs

Season APEX 101.6Event APEX 55.65Rank 15Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

9506Conspiracy Robotics

Season APEX 91.4Event APEX 66.28Rank 16Record 5-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

418Purple Haze

Season APEX 107.9Event APEX 81.75Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 446.2 ±10.5

9577Recoil

Season APEX 54.3Event APEX 19.13Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5103MECH&Cheese

Season APEX 35.9Event APEX 30.04Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

6800Valor

Season APEX 356Event APEX 190.92Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5892, 9506, 418

/ 100 compat

Projected

203.7 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 5892, 9506, 418

Auto

38.2 19%

Teleop

126.4 61%

Endgame

41.5 20%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 9577, 5103, 6800

/ 100 compat

Projected

240.1 pts

~1.9 RP (district)

Teams: 9577, 5103, 6800

Auto

49.7 21%

Teleop

127.7 54%

Endgame

60.8 26%

Strengths

· 6800 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 54%

Supercharged: 3%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.36 · Blue 1.85

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score203.7pts

Blue projected score240.1pts

Red win probability39%

Event bonus sample138alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 54%, blue 56%

Supercharged bonusred 3%, blue 4%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -36.4
Score range: 172–272
Upset likelihood: 39%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 435 vs event baseline 176.4.

Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

300.9Season APEX446.2

38.2Auto49.7

126.4Teleop127.7

41.5Endgame60.8

32Consistency66

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	21	53
teleop	110	155
endgame	19	62
foul	5	10
total	155	280

Result

Final score

155 – 280

Prediction correct · off by 44.3 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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