Playoff · Playoff Match 9 R3

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

122.3 – 75.07

64%36%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

125 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 195.7 ±11

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 16.97Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 49.83Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 55.5Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.2 ±11

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 21.13Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 34.65Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 19.29Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2585, 10118, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

122.3 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 2585, 10118, 8177

Auto

25.6 20%

Teleop

62.1 49%

Endgame

37.9 30%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8818, 8576, 5726

/ 100 compat

Projected

75.1 pts

~1.0 RP (district)

Teams: 8818, 8576, 5726

Auto

20.7 26%

Teleop

46.7 59%

Endgame

11.3 14%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.62 · Blue 1.01

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score122.3pts

Blue projected score75.1pts

Red win probability64%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 47.2
Score range: 55–142
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Playoff

Combined score 221 vs event baseline 110.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

195.7Season APEX231.2

25.6Auto20.7

62.1Teleop46.7

37.9Endgame11.3

7Consistency36

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	23	26
teleop	47	59
endgame	50	11
foul	5	0
total	125	96

Result

Final score

125 – 96

Prediction correct · off by 11.8 pts

Match videos

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