Playoff · Playoff Match 8 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

114.72 – 118.52

49%51%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

148 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 22.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.8 ±9.3

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 51.41Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 21.16Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 42.15Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.1 ±11.6

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 13Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 73.05Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 32.47Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 11242, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

114.7 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5414, 11242, 231

Auto

36.4 31%

Teleop

57.7 50%

Endgame

21.6 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4587, 8515, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4587, 8515, 1255

Auto

19.6 21%

Teleop

42.0 45%

Endgame

31.7 34%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.28

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score114.7pts

Blue projected score118.5pts

Red win probability49%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -3.8
Score range: 95–139
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 278 vs event baseline 109.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.8Season APEX252.1

36.4Auto19.6

57.7Teleop42

21.6Endgame31.7

24Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	42	18
teleop	65	87
endgame	21	20
foul	20	5
total	148	130

Result

Final score

148 – 130

Prediction missed · off by 22.4 pts

Match videos

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