Playoff · Playoff Match 7 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

297.47 – 128.51

89%11%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

366 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 48 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.4 ±8.4

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 29.18Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 137.95Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 130.34Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.7 ±11

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 57.34Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 19.61Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 51.56Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11277, 118, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

297.5 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11277, 118, 624

Auto

55.5 19%

Teleop

164.3 57%

Endgame

70.6 24%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8177, 2585, 10118

/ 100 compat

Projected

128.5 pts

~0.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8177, 2585, 10118

Auto

23.3 18%

Teleop

70.1 53%

Endgame

38.7 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.3 · Blue 0.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score297.5pts

Blue projected score128.5pts

Red win probability89%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 169
Score range: 110–316
Upset likelihood: 11%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 467 vs event baseline 107.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.4Season APEX195.7

55.5Auto23.3

164.3Teleop70.1

70.6Endgame38.7

0Consistency1

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	69	38
teleop	168	27
endgame	99	36
foul	30	0
total	366	101

Result

Final score

366 – 101

Prediction correct · off by 48 pts

Match videos

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