Playoff · Playoff Match 6 R2

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

66.61 – 60.5

52%48%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

79 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 54.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 162.2 ±12.2

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 21.51Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 35.16Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 9.94Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 231.2 ±11

8818The Foe - Foe Engineering Group

Season APEX 57.8Event APEX 16.13Rank 22Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 29.9Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5726RHUMBOTZ

Season APEX 24.8Event APEX 14.47Rank 8Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 7691, 4328, 5070

/ 100 compat

Projected

66.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 7691, 4328, 5070

Auto

17.4 25%

Teleop

31.1 46%

Endgame

19.8 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8818, 8576, 5726

/ 100 compat

Projected

60.5 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 8818, 8576, 5726

Auto

19.6 30%

Teleop

38.5 59%

Endgame

7.5 11%

Strengths

–

Weaknesses

· Thin endgame coverage
· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 32%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.4 · Blue 1.26

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score66.6pts

Blue projected score60.5pts

Red win probability52%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 32%, blue 25%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 6.1
Score range: 42–86
Upset likelihood: 48%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 236 vs event baseline 107.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

162.2Season APEX231.2

17.4Auto19.6

31.1Teleop38.5

19.8Endgame7.5

35Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	22	28
teleop	36	93
endgame	16	31
foul	5	5
total	79	157

Result

Final score

79 – 157

Prediction missed · off by 54.4 pts

Match videos

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