Playoff · Playoff Match 3 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

118.07 – 69.96

65%35%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

131 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.8 ±9.3

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 53.39Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 22.54Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 42.14Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 162.2 ±12.2

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 23.68Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 34.79Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 11.49Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 11242, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

118.1 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 5414, 11242, 231

Auto

38.6 31%

Teleop

56.9 46%

Endgame

27.2 22%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 7691, 4328, 5070

/ 100 compat

Projected

70 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 7691, 4328, 5070

Auto

15.9 22%

Teleop

31.9 45%

Endgame

23.6 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.6 · Blue 1.07

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score118.1pts

Blue projected score70pts

Red win probability65%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 32%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 48.1
Score range: 51–137
Upset likelihood: 35%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Playoff

Standard match.

Combined score 205 vs event baseline 106.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.8Season APEX162.2

38.6Auto15.9

56.9Teleop31.9

27.2Endgame23.6

16Consistency22

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	30	23
teleop	76	40
endgame	10	11
foul	15	0
total	131	74

Result

Final score

131 – 74

Prediction correct · off by 8.5 pts

Match videos

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