Playoff · Playoff Match 2 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

86.79 – 132.02

36%64%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

124 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 185.9 ±11.6

6645Alloy Obsession

Season APEX 73Event APEX 26.81Rank 28Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5261Cyber Shock

Season APEX 82.2Event APEX 53.97Rank 6Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 6.01Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.7 ±11

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 58.99Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 53.18Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 19.85Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 6645, 5261, 5908

/ 100 compat

Projected

86.8 pts

~1.1 RP (district)

Teams: 6645, 5261, 5908

Auto

22.5 24%

Teleop

43.9 47%

Endgame

27.3 29%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 8177, 10118, 2585

/ 100 compat

Projected

132 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 8177, 10118, 2585

Auto

23.9 18%

Teleop

67.5 50%

Endgame

44.3 33%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 28%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.06 · Blue 1.61

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score86.8pts

Blue projected score132pts

Red win probability36%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 28%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -45.2
Score range: 68–151
Upset likelihood: 36%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 263 vs event baseline 105.8.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

185.9Season APEX195.7

22.5Auto23.9

43.9Teleop67.5

27.3Endgame44.3

14Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	21
teleop	55	93
endgame	49	25
foul	0	0
total	124	139

Result

Final score

124 – 139

Prediction correct · off by 22.1 pts

Match videos

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