Playoff · Playoff Match 1 R1

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

298.67 – 94.35

93%7%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

322 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.4 ±8.4

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 27.26Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 139.53Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 131.88Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 183.5 ±13.3

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 1.21Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

9512Horsepower

Season APEX 111Event APEX 75.91Rank 15Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 17.23Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11277, 118, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

298.7 pts

~2.4 RP (district)

Teams: 11277, 118, 624

Auto

56.0 19%

Teleop

166.8 56%

Endgame

74.6 25%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5923, 9512, 10904

/ 100 compat

Projected

94.4 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5923, 9512, 10904

Auto

18.3 27%

Teleop

33.4 50%

Endgame

15.5 23%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.37 · Blue 0.48

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score298.7pts

Blue projected score94.4pts

Red win probability93%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 30%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 204.3
Score range: 75–318
Upset likelihood: 7%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 413 vs event baseline 104.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.4Season APEX183.5

56Auto18.3

166.8Teleop33.4

74.6Endgame15.5

15Consistency13

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	54	16
teleop	175	46
endgame	63	29
foul	30	0
total	322	91

Result

Final score

322 – 91

Prediction correct · off by 13.3 pts

Match videos

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