Playoff · Playoff Match 13 R5

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

111.89 – 135.57

43%57%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

129 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 461.8 ±9.3

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 50.3Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 19.94Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 41.65Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 252.1 ±11.6

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 18.79Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 79.08Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 37.7Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5414, 11242, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

111.9 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 5414, 11242, 231

Auto

35.2 32%

Teleop

54.0 49%

Endgame

20.3 19%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4587, 8515, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

135.6 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 4587, 8515, 1255

Auto

26.0 22%

Teleop

58.7 51%

Endgame

31.3 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 27%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.17 · Blue 1.41

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score111.9pts

Blue projected score135.6pts

Red win probability43%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 27%, blue 21%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -23.7
Score range: 92–156
Upset likelihood: 43%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 297 vs event baseline 112.6.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

461.8Season APEX252.1

35.2Auto26

54Teleop58.7

20.3Endgame31.3

33Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	39
teleop	59	98
endgame	20	31
foul	0	0
total	129	168

Result

Final score

129 – 168

Prediction correct · off by 24.8 pts

Match videos

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