Playoff · Playoff Match 12 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

126.62 – 121.94

51%49%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

193 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 252.1 ±11.6

4587Jersey Voltage

Season APEX 48Event APEX 15.83Rank 25Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 76.05Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 34.74Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 195.7 ±11

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 17.15Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

10118Robonauts EveryBot

Season APEX 54.9Event APEX 49.39Rank 7Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 55.4Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 4587, 8515, 1255

/ 100 compat

Projected

126.6 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 4587, 8515, 1255

Auto

22.6 21%

Teleop

54.0 50%

Endgame

32.1 30%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 2585, 10118, 8177

/ 100 compat

Projected

121.9 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 2585, 10118, 8177

Auto

25.2 20%

Teleop

59.3 48%

Endgame

39.5 32%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 21%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.29 · Blue 1.3

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score126.6pts

Blue projected score121.9pts

Red win probability51%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 21%, blue 28%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 4.7
Score range: 102–147
Upset likelihood: 49%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 307 vs event baseline 112.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

252.1Season APEX195.7

22.6Auto25.2

54Teleop59.3

32.1Endgame39.5

1Consistency16

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	48	38
teleop	89	47
endgame	26	29
foul	30	0
total	193	114

Result

Final score

193 – 114

Prediction correct · off by 37.2 pts

Match videos

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