Playoff · Playoff Match 11 R4

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

308.13 – 119.15

91%9%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

364 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 51 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 494.4 ±8.4

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 32.97Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

118Robonauts

Season APEX 235.9Event APEX 141.53Rank 1Record 12-0-0Status establishedConfidence 100

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 133.63Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 461.8 ±9.3

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 52.88Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

11242Golden Eagle Mechanics

Season APEX 180.1Event APEX 22.46Rank 23Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 43.81Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 11277, 118, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

308.1 pts

~2.3 RP (district)

Teams: 11277, 118, 624

Auto

57.4 19%

Teleop

164.7 55%

Endgame

75.2 25%

Strengths

· 118 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 5414, 11242, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

119.2 pts

~0.5 RP (district)

Teams: 5414, 11242, 231

Auto

37.1 32%

Teleop

58.0 50%

Endgame

21.3 18%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage
· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 46%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 2.34 · Blue 0.49

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score308.1pts

Blue projected score119.2pts

Red win probability91%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 46%, blue 27%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 189
Score range: 99–328
Upset likelihood: 9%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Playoff

Combined score 437 vs event baseline 110.5.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

494.4Season APEX461.8

57.4Auto37.1

164.7Teleop58

75.2Endgame21.3

0Consistency26

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	65	26
teleop	212	33
endgame	87	14
foul	0	0
total	364	73

Result

Final score

364 – 73

Prediction correct · off by 51 pts

Match videos

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