Qualification · Qualification 8

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

40.09 – 49.08

47%53%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

53 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 22 points

Limited current-season data (6 matches), wider uncertainty, lower confidence.

red allianceTotal Season APEX 198.4 ±12.2

5923WildC.A.T.S.

Season APEX 19.1Event APEX 9.52Rank 19Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 17.43Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

5908Spartans

Season APEX 30.7Event APEX 13.14Rank 17Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 97

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 185 ±12.8

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 46.11Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7115Red Lion Bots

Season APEX 55.1Event APEX 13.71Rank 20Record 5-6-1Status establishedConfidence 97

6488RoboRams

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -10.74Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 5923, 8576, 5908

/ 100 compat

Projected

40.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 5923, 8576, 5908

Auto

9.7 28%

Teleop

15.8 45%

Endgame

9.5 27%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Blue · 7691, 7115, 6488

/ 100 compat

Projected

49.1 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 7691, 7115, 6488

Auto

0.8 2%

Teleop

26.7 54%

Endgame

21.7 44%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Thin autonomous coverage
· Below-average combined firepower

RP bonus probability

Energized: 26%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 3%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.25 · Blue 1.29

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score40.1pts

Blue projected score49.1pts

Red win probability47%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 26%, blue 20%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 3%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -9
Score range: 22–67
Upset likelihood: 47%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Standard match.

Combined score 71 vs event baseline 102.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

198.4Season APEX185

9.7Auto0.8

15.8Teleop26.7

9.5Endgame21.7

0Consistency0

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	18	6
teleop	22	10
endgame	13	2
foul	0	0
total	53	18

Result

Final score

53 – 18

Prediction missed · off by 22 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

Match videos

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