Qualification · Qualification 7

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Blue alliance

Predicted score

165.15 – 190.62

42%58%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

164 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 279 ±11

8515Photon

Season APEX 107.7Event APEX 63.8Rank 16Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 97

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 55.27Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

231High Voltage

Season APEX 101.7Event APEX 46.08Rank 3Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 317.4 ±11.1

4328Furious Falcons

Season APEX 51.4Event APEX 39.41Rank 13Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 12Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 139.21Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 8515, 8177, 231

/ 100 compat

Projected

165.1 pts

~1.2 RP (district)

Teams: 8515, 8177, 231

Auto

30.2 22%

Teleop

78.2 58%

Endgame

26.2 19%

Strengths

· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 4328, 2585, 624

/ 100 compat

Projected

190.6 pts

~1.6 RP (district)

Teams: 4328, 2585, 624

Auto

44.1 21%

Teleop

104.7 51%

Endgame

56.8 28%

Strengths

· 624 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 31%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.19 · Blue 1.55

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score165.1pts

Blue projected score190.6pts

Red win probability42%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 31%, blue 36%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: -25.5
Score range: 147–209
Upset likelihood: 42%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

High scoring

Combined score 305 vs event baseline 101.2.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

279Season APEX317.4

30.2Auto44.1

78.2Teleop104.7

26.2Endgame56.8

0Consistency39

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	35	36
teleop	48	75
endgame	81	30
foul	0	0
total	164	141

Result

Final score

164 – 141

Prediction missed · off by 25.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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