Qualification · Qualification 60

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

70.3 – 52.82

55%45%

Actual result

Winner

Blue alliance

Final score

85 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 31.9 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 283.5 ±11

2585Impact

Season APEX 71.2Event APEX 18.61Rank 27Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

11277ARC

Season APEX 63.7Event APEX 26.61Rank 21Record 4-8-0Status establishedConfidence 100

8576Golden Warriors Robotics

Season APEX 148.6Event APEX 25.08Rank 11Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 219.4 ±11.7

1255Blarglefish

Season APEX 96.4Event APEX 19.45Rank 5Record 8-4-0Status establishedConfidence 100

7691TSA All Stars

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 20.02Rank 18Record 5-7-0Status establishedConfidence 100

10904The Circuit Sorcerers

Season APEX 53.4Event APEX 13.35Rank 10Record 6-5-1Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 2585, 11277, 8576

/ 100 compat

Projected

70.3 pts

~1.4 RP (district)

Teams: 2585, 11277, 8576

Auto

19.6 24%

Teleop

42.3 52%

Endgame

19.5 24%

Strengths

· Well-balanced across phases

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 1255, 7691, 10904

/ 100 compat

Projected

52.8 pts

~1.3 RP (district)

Teams: 1255, 7691, 10904

Auto

18.6 32%

Teleop

22.9 39%

Endgame

17.5 30%

Strengths

· Strong autonomous coverage

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 24%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.39 · Blue 1.27

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score70.3pts

Blue projected score52.8pts

Red win probability55%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 24%, blue 33%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 3%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 17.5
Score range: 34–89
Upset likelihood: 45%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

Upset

Combined score 187 vs event baseline 104.3.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

283.5Season APEX219.4

19.6Auto18.6

42.3Teleop22.9

19.5Endgame17.5

12Consistency10

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	20	19
teleop	53	61
endgame	12	22
foul	0	0
total	85	102

Result

Final score

85 – 102

Prediction missed · off by 31.9 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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