Qualification · Qualification 58

APEX prediction

Predicted winner

Red alliance

Predicted score

181.57 – 74.55

79%21%

Actual result

Winner

Red alliance

Final score

200 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 points

red allianceTotal Season APEX 435.1 ±10.7

624CRyptonite

Season APEX 194.8Event APEX 131.13Rank 2Record 10-2-0Status establishedConfidence 100

6488RoboRams

Season APEX 60.3Event APEX -2.81Rank 30Record 3-9-0Status establishedConfidence 97

5414Pearadox

Season APEX 180Event APEX 53.25Rank 4Record 9-3-0Status establishedConfidence 100

blue allianceTotal Season APEX 164.9 ±12.8

8177Vector

Season APEX 69.6Event APEX 55.01Rank 12Record 6-6-0Status establishedConfidence 100

2882Nuts n' Boltz

Season APEX 54.1Event APEX 11.54Rank 24Record 4-7-1Status establishedConfidence 97

5070Gearnotics

Season APEX 41.2Event APEX 8Rank 9Record 7-5-0Status establishedConfidence 97

Scouting breakdown

Alliance compatibility and predicted ranking points, built from this event's completed matches.

Red · 624, 6488, 5414

/ 100 compat

Projected

181.6 pts

~2.0 RP (district)

Teams: 624, 6488, 5414

Auto

41.9 22%

Teleop

106.4 57%

Endgame

38.3 21%

Strengths

· 624 anchors offense
· Well-balanced across phases
· Elite combined APEX

Weaknesses

· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Blue · 8177, 2882, 5070

/ 100 compat

Projected

74.6 pts

~0.8 RP (district)

Teams: 8177, 2882, 5070

Auto

13.7 15%

Teleop

40.2 45%

Endgame

35.2 40%

Strengths

· Reliable endgame stack

Weaknesses

· Below-average combined firepower
· Inconsistent match-to-match output

RP bonus probability

Energized: 35%

Supercharged: 2%

Traversal: 2%

Predicted ranking points (district)Red 1.98 · Blue 0.75

Formula

RP = 2·P(win) + tie·P(tie) + Σ P(bonus)

Inputs

Rule setDistrict

Red projected score181.6pts

Blue projected score74.6pts

Red win probability79%

Event bonus sample150alliance-matches

Adjustments

Energized bonusred 35%, blue 29%

Supercharged bonusred 2%, blue 2%

Traversal bonusred 2%, blue 2%

District qualification: 2 RP win, 1 RP each bonus. Awards also feed district points.
Team bonus rates shrink toward the event mean (4-match prior).
Alliance bonus prob = geometric mean of team rates (all three must contribute).

Prediction detail

Predicted margin: 107
Score range: 56–201
Upset likelihood: 21%
Data cutoff: 2026-08-15
Model: apex-0.4.0

Match context

High scoring

Combined score 329 vs event baseline 104.1.

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Red vs Blue

Alliance sums (event-scoped where available)

435.1Season APEX164.9

41.9Auto13.7

106.4Teleop40.2

38.3Endgame35.2

18Consistency27

Score breakdown

Official phase points (TBA)

Phase	Red	Blue
auto	50	12
teleop	106	71
endgame	44	36
foul	0	10
total	200	129

Result

Final score

200 – 129

Prediction correct · off by 36.4 pts

Score check across official sources:

agree

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